Draft Position Scenarios

After the Jets recent loss in glorious fashion, we’re going to start to prepare for the draft. With the loss, the Jets can go as high as the 4th pick in the 2013 NFL Draft and as low as the 20th pick. Now to figure out the scenario for each pick might be a bit hard and to keep this from being a novel I will just do two scenarios: highest pick possible and lowest pick possible.

 

Highest Pick Possible Scenario

Jets lose last two (duh!)

Bills win in week 16

Dolphins beat Patriots in week 17

Cleveland win last two

Chargers win in week 17

Titans win last two

Eagles win last two

Lions win last two

Buccaneers win a game

Cardinals win last two

Saints beat the Cowboys in week 16

Panthers win last two

 

If all of that happens then the Jets would finish at 6-10 and would be in a 3-way tie for the 4th worst record in the league. According to the NFL the first tiebreaker for the draft order is strength of schedule, which as of now and not including anything from the scenario goes as such:

 

Jets – 50.2% (112-110-2)

Eagles – 51.3% (115-109-0)

Lions – 56.5% (126-98-2)

 

Jets have clinched over the Lions since they share 8 common opponents and the Lions division rivals play each other, so they can’t make-up the 14 game difference so it’s down to Jets vs. Eagles. The Jets and Eagles share two common opponents in the Cardinals and Steelers.

 

The list below will show the records of the teams in order to make the scenario work and nothing else so some teams might be missing a game or two.

 

Jets Opponents

Bills x2 – 7-9

Dolphins x2 – 7-9

Patriots x2 – 10-5

Steelers – 7-8

Chargers – 7-9

Titans – 7-9

Texans – 12-2

Jaguars – 2-13

Colts – 9-5

49ers – 10-4-1

Rams – 6-8-1/7-7-1

Seahawks – 9-5

Cardinals – 7-9

 

Total if Tampa wins week 16 – 124-118-2 or 125-119(51.2%)

Total if Tampa wins week 17 – 125-117-2 or 126-118(51.6%)

 

Week 16

Colts at Chiefs (0-1 or 1-0)

Bengals at Steelers (0-1 or 1-0)

Patriots at Jaguars (1-2 or 2-1)

Vikings at Texans (0-1 or 1-0)

Seahawks at 49ers (1-1)

Week 17

Texans at Colts (1-1)

Rams at Seahawks (1-1)

 

Best case scenario – Chiefs, Bengals, Jaguars, & Vikings win(4-8)

Total if Tampa wins week 16 – 128-126-2 or 129-127(50.4%)

Total if Tampa wins week 17 – 129-125-2 or 130-126(50.7%)

 

Eagles opponents

Cowboys x2 – 8-7

Giants x2 – 8-7

Redskins x2 – 8-7

Cardinals – 7-9

Lions – 6-10

Saints – 7-9

Falcons – 13-3/12-4

Bucs – 7-9

Panthers – 7-9

Bengals – 8-6

Ravens – 9-5

Browns – 7-9

Steelers – 7-8

 

Total if Tampa wins week 16 – 126-119(51.4%)

Total if Tampa wins week 17 – 125-120(51%)

 

Week 16

Bengals at Steelers (1-1)

Giants at Ravens (1-2 or 2-1)

Week 17

Ravens at Bengals (1-1)

Bears at Lions (0-1 or 1-0)

Cowboys at Redskins (2-2)

 

Best case scenario – Giants and Lions win (7-5)

Total if Tampa wins week 16 – 132-124(51.6%)

Total if Tampa wins week 17 – 131-125(51.1%)

 

Basically the Jets have a to see who Tampa beats and how week 16 folds out since if Tampa wins in week 16 then the Jets have a game in hand in SOS going into the rest of the games for the scenario games otherwise Philly will have the game advantage.

 

In case you were wondering, there is a scenario in which the Jets tie with the Chargers and Raiders along with Philly and Detroit for the 3rd pick but they would lose to them both in strength of schedule since they are ahead by 10+ games so it’s better to concede the 3rd pick to the Raiders and win the tiebreaker for 4th.

 

Lowest Pick Scenario

 

This one will have the Jets finishing at 8-8 with as few ties as possible in order to contend for a higher spot. I’m not sure how this will work as in this scenario an 8-8 team or a 9-7 team would make the NFC playoffs thus changing how many teams are tied for the last spot at pick number 20 since 21-32 are reserved for playoff teams.

 

The scenario goes as follows:

Jets win last 2

Vikings lose last 2

Bears lose last 2

Giants lose 1 or both

Cowboys or Redskins lose last 2

All 7 win teams lose both games

All 6 win teams lose at least once

Rams lose once

 

It’s a bit confusing but in these 3 scenarios the Bears and possibly the Vikings along with either one or two of the following: Giants, Cowboys & Redskins would be tied with the Jets at 8-8.

 

So either way we would have a 4-way tie for the best record for a team not in the playoffs.

 

Current strength of schedule not using scenario

Jets – 112-110-2 (50.2%)

Bears – 115-107-2(51.8%) Bears +3

Giants – 118-105-1(52.9%) Giants +5.5

Vikings – 116-106-2(52.3%) Vikings +4

Cowboys – 115-109(51.3%) Cowboys +2

Redskins – 112-111-1(50.2%) Jets +.5

 

The above is not good when it comes to tiebreakers as the Jets must have the best strength of schedule in this case to get the higher pick. To keep it short I won’t do the math in full but basically vs. the NFC North teams the Jets share at least 8 common opponents, so for the Jets to have any chance the Patriots must win out plus the Bucs and Panthers must lose out. For the NFC East teams the Jets must have the AFC North teams minus Pittsburgh and the NFC South teams lose while the AFC South and Cardinals win out.

 

With the way the schedule is set-up though with all division match-ups in week 17, I don’t see a way for the Jets to get the highest pick since in any scenario the Jets have to catch up to either the Vikings, Giants, Redskins, and Cowboys along with the Bears who each will be increasing their strength of schedule by 3(division rival gets 2) since they have to lose out to meet this criteria while the Jets lose 3 since they have to win to get into this position. With that huge swing in mind here’s how it would look when you just add the three games to each of the team’s strength of schedule.

 

Current strength of schedule with the 3 game swing:

Jets – 112-113-2

Bears – 118-107-2 Bears +6

Giants – 121-105-1 Giants +8.5

Vikings – 119-106-2 Vikings +7

Cowboys – 118-109 Cowboys +5

Redskins – 115-111-1 Redskins +2.5

 

Looking at this this would mean that the Jets at best could probably pass only the Redskins while falling short of the Cowboys by a game or two which means the best case scenario would be having the Redskins going 8-8 and the Jets just barely passing them in strength of schedule to get the 18th pick of the draft otherwise it’ll be the 17th pick.

 

So in conclusion the Jets can possibly draft as high as 4th and as low as 18th tune in next week when this stuff becomes a heck of a lot easier.

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