Breaking down the numbers: Jets vs. Patriots – Part 2 Defense

[SMC]

I'm not predicting anything as I was simply stating what occurred last year. Do you think Brady is going to throw 2 picks on Monday?

Yes.

You do realize that Brady has thrown 3 TDs and 3 INTs against Rex's Jets defense in 3 games. Against everyone else he's thrown 14 INTs in 2 years.

[Gainzo]

Yes.

You do realize that Brady has thrown 3 TDs and 3 INTs against the Jets in 3 games against Rex's Jets defense. Against everyone else he's thrown 14 INTs in 2 years.

You do realize that the Jets have won at home and lost on the road against the Pats. The last time the Jets swept the Pats was in 2000.

[SMC]

You do realize that the Jets have won at home and lost on the road against the Pats. The last time the Jets swept the Pats was in 2000.

You do realize the Jets won in Foxboro in 2008 and are 3-1 against the Pats in the last 4 games?

[#27TheDominator]

The Pats D absolutely sucks against the pass but are pretty decent against the run. If the game comes down to Sanchez I like the Pats chances.

If by "pretty decent" you mean slightly below average, okay. IMO better than the Broncos does not constitute pretty decent. My point is the numbers are skewed because the Pats are winning and putting up pinball numbers. That forces teams to pass. Sure they do it because it's easy, but running isn't so tough either. They are mid-pack in total yards and ypc. They are also bottom third in rushing TDs allowed and 1st downs. That tells me they aren't exactly stout. The job they did on the Steelers and Ravens makes you wonder, but the Jets, Vikings and Browns ran pretty well-not to mention the Lions and Bills.

I think the home field will be pretty big for the Pats, but the Jets like the road. It's tough to tell exactly where they are at because the Pats turned the ball over 3 times in each of their losses. That's not a common thing when Brady has only 4INT for the season. You might think they won't do that again, so they won't lose, but OTOH, the games they lost were not exactly close. They also may have turned it over because they were pressing a bit. Like Peyton did against the Pats.

It'll be fun. IMO if you are rolling the dice that Sanchez will lose the game, you are going to be in for a rude awakening. He may fold against tough Ds, but the Pats don't have one. I expect to see a lot of plays for Keller and Holmes to get YAC and if the Pats gear up to stop the run I expect them to open it up, maybe even see them use the no-huddle that Slats and others have been calling for. I just wish it wasn't on at 3 am here. At least I know it will be televised.

[Klecko73isGod]

You do realize that the Jets have won at home and lost on the road against the Pats. The last time the Jets swept the Pats was in 2000.

You do realize that that is completely meaningless, right?

[The Crusher]

Yes, the Pats defense (with certainty against the pass- the short intermediate kind) pretty much sucks...but to say it has not improved is stupid, Zippy.

Does any team in the league actually stop these? hate them.

[The Crusher]

Really?

The Pats are allowing an average of 288.5 passing yards per game this year. Since the bye, the Pats have allowed three QBs to throw for well over 300 yards (336 by Rivers, 387 by Big Ben, 396 by Manning) they have allowed two to throw right at about their season average, 285 (Favre and Shaun Hill) and only one to throw for below their season average and that was when a rookie Colt McCoy threw for only 174 yards but completed a staggering 74% of his passes in a game that he really didn't need to throw a single pass because Peyton Hillis literally ran all over the Pats D. BTW, that was only three weeks ago.

Where the hell is this alleged improvement? The Pats have allowed an AVERAGE of 303.14 passing yards per game since their bye. That's improvement?

Man and all those guys suck too!!!

[The Crusher]

The Pats D absolutely sucks against the pass but are pretty decent against the run. If the game comes down to Sanchez I like the Pats chances.

Thats just stupid. Have you watched him this year at all? Really? At all? Once? He is still raw but he is money in the clutch. Started last year in the playoffs. He wilted against a couple top shelf defenses but he's not playing one this week.

[#27TheDominator]

Duh, the Pats defenders are improving because they are young. Damn the statistics, it's automatic! Of course, when Jets fans expected Sanchez to improve we were being irrational.

[The Crusher]

You do realize the Jets won in Foxboro in 2008 and are 3-1 against the Pats in the last 4 games?

Plus the Jets are like a cheating spouse, prefer the road and only play at home cause they have to.

[Klecko73isGod]

Man and all those guys suck too!!!

Yet even for Rivers, who is chasing Marino's single season yardage record, those numbers are well above their per game averages.

Rivers is averaging 305.64 yards per game, he threw for 336 against the Pats - 10% above his average game, Manning is averging 304 yards per game, he threw for 396 against the Pats - 30% above his average game, Big Ben is averaging 260.71 yards per game this year, he threw for 387 against the Pats - a whopping 49% above his average game.

The Pats defense is in danger of being historically bad.

[Jets Voice of Reason]

The only thing stopping the Patriots defense from being completely pathetic is that they generate turnovers to cover up mistakes. You can't even make the argument that it's because teams abandon the run after being down in games. They are smack dab in the middle against the run as well. This team is bad defensively.

[JustInFudge]

Yet even for Rivers, who is chasing Marino's single season yardage record, those numbers are well above their per game averages.

Rivers is averaging 305.64 yards per game, he threw for 336 against the Pats - 10% above his average game, Manning is averging 304 yards per game, he threw for 396 against the Pats - 30% above his average game, Big Ben is averaging 260.71 yards per game this year, he threw for 387 against the Pats - a whopping 49% above his average game.

The Pats defense is in danger of being historically bad.

Yes but Pats fans told us they were improving so they are. They pass the eye test. I remember watching the Lions game and when the Pats were losing at half time by a Shaun Hill led offense, I was like, man this defense is really improving, the scoreboard and stat line doesnt indicate such, but my eyes tell me so.

[The Crusher]

Yet even for Rivers, who is chasing Marino's single season yardage record, those numbers are well above their per game averages.

Rivers is averaging 305.64 yards per game, he threw for 336 against the Pats - 10% above his average game, Manning is averging 304 yards per game, he threw for 396 against the Pats - 30% above his average game, Big Ben is averaging 260.71 yards per game this year, he threw for 387 against the Pats - a whopping 49% above his average game.

The Pats defense is in danger of being historically bad.

Understood and well stated. i guess Im doing a Garb because their offense with the short and intermediate passes scare me. Our safeties and linebackers suck in coverage. The Pats have NO reason to test Cromartie and Revis, none. I just see them ripping us a new one underneath.

i do think if Sanchez plays well we win. but bad weather and Foxboro makes it hard for my fatness to feel good about this one. Hold me?

[#27TheDominator]

Understood and well stated. i guess Im doing a Garb because their offense with the short and intermediate passes scare me. Our safeties and linebackers suck in coverage. The Pats have NO reason to test Cromartie and Revis, none. I just see them ripping us a new one underneath.

i do think if Sanchez plays well we win. but bad weather and Foxboro makes it hard for my fatness to feel good about this one. Hold me?

I think that's all true, but...

how do they avoid testing Revis and Cromartie? Who or what is occupying those guys so that the Pats can run free short over the middle? One isn't burned covering Moss. They can try on Welker and Branch. They can zone. They can put Cromartie on Hernandez. I expect to see a ton of nickel and a ton of zone mixed in.

[The Crusher]

I think that's all true, but...

how do they avoid testing Revis and Cromartie? Who or what is occupying those guys so that the Pats can run free short over the middle? One isn't burned covering Moss. They can try on Welker and Branch. They can zone. They can put Cromartie on Hernandez. I expect to see a ton of nickel and a ton of zone mixed in.

Not sure. But no one else has really struggled to do this, so hard to believe the Pats will. Any WR on the outside can run a route and someone has to go with them. Honestly DOM, don;t really have a good explanation, just nervous as hell about it.

[#27TheDominator]

Not sure. But no one else has really struggled to do this, so hard to believe the Pats will. Any WR on the outside can run a route and someone has to go with them. Honestly DOM, don;t really have a good explanation, just nervous as hell about it.

The Browns are the only team without a top-flight WR that has put up even 20. Maybe the Broncos. You could make a case that Welker is "top-flight" but then expect him to face a ton of Revis and have his effectiveness greatly reduced. The Pats O is good, we should be nervous, but not scared. They can try to stretch the field with Tate, but then they will have a ton of WR on the field because their bread and butter is Welker-Branch-Hernandez. Who is going to block?

[The Crusher]

The Browns are the only team without a top-flight WR that has put up even 20. Maybe the Broncos. You could make a case that Welker is "top-flight" but then expect him to face a ton of Revis and have his effectiveness greatly reduced. The Pats O is good, we should be nervous, but not scared. They can try to stretch the field with Tate, but then they will have a ton of WR on the field because their bread and butter is Welker-Branch-Hernandez. Who is going to block?

Good point. i feel a little better. maybe i will watch the game with only one box of tissues. Thanx Dom.

[Klecko73isGod]

Good point. i feel a little better. maybe i will watch the game with only one box of tissues. Thanx Dom.

Bottom line is this is going to be a chess match that the Jets are better equipped to win than the Pats.

[The Crusher]

Bottom line is this is going to be a chess match that the Jets are better equipped to win than the Pats.

If Rex and Belli-Cheat where playing Chess you would pick Rex to win?

I understand we are WAY better on paper(sans QB), but it's not that comforting for me.

[Garb]

Question for you all.

We all know the Pats pass d sucks. I say they are improving. You all say it is not.

Let's flip that.

The Jets defense is good. However, my eyes (watching the games) tells me it's not as good as it used to be. Therefore, it has digressed. Agree?

[Klecko73isGod]

If Rex and Belli-Cheat where playing Chess you would pick Rex to win?

I understand we are WAY better on paper(sans QB), but it's not that comforting for me.

Seeing as Rex is 2-1 against Belichick I am incredibly comfortable picking Rex to win.

[Klecko73isGod]

Question for you all.

We all know the Pats pass d sucks. I say they are improving. You all say it is not.

Let's flip that.

The Jets defense is good. However, my eyes (watching the games) tells me it's not as good as it used to be. Therefore, it has digressed. Agree?

Seeing as they just played their best game of the season, no.

[Garb]

Seeing as they just played their best game of the season, no.

...against Cincy.

[SMC]

Question for you all.

We all know the Pats pass d sucks. I say they are improving. You all say it is not.

Question:

Garb, how in the hell is the Pats' pass D "improving" if they're DEAD LAST in pass defense???

Was the Pats' pass D playing in a developmental league or something that we don't know about?

The Pats D is dead last in pass defense, 31st in overall defense, bottom half in rush defense, and 22nd in points allowed. That's a bad defense plain and simple. And if not for the dreadful NFC west "contenders" the Pats would have the worse defense by a mile out of all the playoff contenders.

[SMC]

...against Cincy.

Cincy scored 24 against the Pats and 10 against the Jets.

[Garb]

Cincy scored 24 against the Pats and 10 against the Jets.

first, you can be dead last in pass yards allowed and still be improving. It's been established that they suck....they don't suck as much as they did in week one, two, three and four. I saw people out of position. Now I see poeple in position...does not mean the play is being made, but they are where they are supposed to be for the most part. At this point its a talent and youth issue.

second, Cincy actually played withs ome passion in the beginning of the season. now? they look like a team that is on the verge of quitting on their coach.

[Jared]

The Patriots passing defense YPA has been improving. However teams are throwing on them more often. They used to be near last in YPA, now they are up to around 24th place. Still bad, but not AS bad. However teams throw 60% of the time against them, plus teams have greater TOP. The Pats defense faces the HIGHEST number of opposing plays per game.

So combination of bad (but not historically bad) passing YPA, plus teams choosing to pass 60% of the time, plus teams having more total plays per game = what looks like historic total passing yardage numbers.

[SMC]

The Patriots passing defense YPA has been improving. However teams are throwing on them more often. They used to be near last in YPA, now they are up to around 24th place. Still bad, but not AS bad. However teams throw 60% of the time against them, plus teams have greater TOP. The Pats defense faces the HIGHEST number of opposing plays per game.

So combination of bad (but not historically bad) passing YPA, plus teams choosing to pass 60% of the time, plus teams having more total plays per game = what looks like historic total passing yardage numbers.

Teams are choosing to pass 60% of the time against the Pats because teams know the Pats' pass D sucks. Opponents have more total plays per game because the Pats can't stop anybody unless there is a turnover. The Pats are giving up yarage AND points.

And, LOL, at "improving" in YPA. So, before the Pats pass D was getting killed on bombs. Now they're getting shredded on shorter passes.

A big reason why the Pats got blown out by the Jets and Browns? The Jets and Browns didn't turn the ball over. If the Pats don't get turnovers on defense they're screwed.

[JustInFudge]

first, you can be dead last in pass yards allowed and still be improving. It's been established that they suck....they don't suck as much as they did in week one, two, three and four. I saw people out of position. Now I see poeple in position...does not mean the play is being made, but they are where they are supposed to be for the most part. At this point its a talent and youth issue.

second, Cincy actually played withs ome passion in the beginning of the season. now? they look like a team that is on the verge of quitting on their coach.

But they werent dead last at the start of the season in like week 4/5 range...SMC had a post dont where it was but they are regressing since then. They were like 22nd after 5 weeks and now dead last.

I know you like the eye test...what was the eye test telling you at halftime of the Lions game?

[JetsFanInDenver]

The JETS will a$$ whoop the improved Pats defense.

[Garb]

But they werent dead last at the start of the season in like week 4/5 range...SMC had a post dont where it was but they are regressing since then. They were like 22nd after 5 weeks and now dead last.

I know you like the eye test...what was the eye test telling you at halftime of the Lions game?

That my pass defense is sucks.

As stated, this is a given. However, it has improved. They actually know what to do. Doing it is another thing altogether.

It is no secret that the teams success is squarely on TB's shoulders. Those fortuitous defensive stops help. Oh, yah, those...another sign of improvement. And, again, improvement does not mean they are good or anywhere near good. Trust me, in the beginning of the season, they looked like the keystone cops out there.

[SMC]

That my pass defense is sucks.

As stated, this is a given. However, it has improved. They actually know what to do. Doing it is another thing altogether.

That actually means they're worse.

Before you can chalk it up to not knowing what to do. Now they do know and still suck. They learned the defense and got worse in the process.

If the Pats D doesn't get a turnover they are royally screwed.

[Garb]

That actually means they're worse.

Before you can chalk it up to not knowing what to do. Now they do know and still suck. They learned the defense and got worse in the process.

If the Pats D doesn't get a turnover they are royally screwed.

LOL! I beleive you are wrong. We'll see this Monday nite.

[JustInFudge]

That my pass defense is sucks.

As stated, this is a given. However, it has improved. They actually know what to do. Doing it is another thing altogether.

It is no secret that the teams success is squarely on TB's shoulders. Those fortuitous defensive stops help. Oh, yah, those...another sign of improvement. And, again, improvement does not mean they are good or anywhere near good. Trust me, in the beginning of the season, they looked like the keystone cops out there.

Here's the thing Garby...you act as if they werent making stops at the begging of the year and though they are the worst in the league on 3rd down, they are finding away to get off the field...sometimes. But what you are not recognizing here, is that you dont get to 9-2 unless your D makes a stop now and then. Which they've done all year long, but you act like this is just an all of a sudden thing, which in reality (and I cant find the break down) they've got worse on 3rd down as the season has progressed.

I understand you like the eye test, but maybe you are letting your eyes deceive you and fool you into what you want to believe is true, when in reality your defense is no better (possibly worse)than they were after week 4.

But you know what, it doesnt matter. Why? Tom Brady.