Week 13 Jets Pick: Slow Titans Offense Is Not So Titanic

By Justin Hilbert Posted On November 29, 2018

It finally happened. The Jets are once again at the bottom of the AFC East. We didn’t think it was possible this season with the way that the Buffalo Bills have been playing, but somehow the Bills got a win over over the Jacksonville Jaguars to put them a game up on the Jets and 3rd in the Division.

Well, the season isn’t over, and our Jets are better than the Bills, DANGIT! Our team will get another crack at the Bills two weeks from now and still has a great chance of putting Buffalo back on the bottom. But that will have to wait until December 9th. Next up is Marcus Mariota and the Tennessee Titans. The Titans are listed as 7.5 point favs at the top sportsbook Intertops, but some other shops have the Jets as long as 9.5 at other shops, which is a number worth looking into.

Jets @ Titans

Josh McCown and the rest of Gang Green held it together against the New England Patriots for the better part of three quarters. For a while there, it really looked like the Jets would cover the spread against Terrible Tom and the Pats. They almost did; missing by just one point.

Now they are up against a Titans team who has dropped two in a row. Marcus Mariota had a fantastic showing against the Houston Texans going 22 for 23 and 303 yards, but it still wasn’t enough. The stats look great, but something I’ve noticed about Mariota since he’s entered the NFL from Oregon is he seems to hold back. He rarely airs the ball out downfield. Maybe it is because he doesn’t have a talent that he can trust to throw to in cover. Instead of letting it rip and trusting his receiver to get the ball, he almost always checks back inside and throws for short yardage.

Following this line of thought, if the Jets load up on the run, the Titans are only going to nickel and dime their defense for minimal yards. It is unlikely that Marcus Mariota will challenge the secondary with deep passes down the sidelines. This is why I think as bettors we need to pay special attention to the first half in this game.

First Half is Where it’s at!

With the exception of the Jets’ sloppy performance against the Buffalo Bills a couple of weeks ago, they have managed to keep it close for the first half of most games. They went into halftime up 23-13 against the Colts, down 10-7 against the Vikings, down 7-3 against the Bears, down 6-3 against the Dolphins, and tied 10-10 with the Pats.

The Titans have been getting off to a slow start in most of their games this season, usually just playing up to their level of competition. They had a hot start against the Pats, but even in their win against the Eagles, they went into the half with just three points.

There is a laundry list of injuries on Mike Vrabel’s team, and Mariota has been taking a ton of sacks, which has slowed down his offensive production even more than his tendency to throw for short yardage completions. Furthermore, Look for Kacy Rodgers to pay special attention to getting pressure on Mariota as he has taken 35 sacks in just 10 games. This is likely to be a game with a slow start.

The Pick

Take the Jets +6 in the 1st Half. If you are feeling especially saucy, double down with the Jets +9.5 on the full game as it’s a lot of points. As for me, I’m sticking to the first half play and then just going to enjoy my winnings while I watch the rest of the game.