- Miami Dolphins (-3) @ New York Jets (45.5 O/U)
- Date/Time: October 9th, 2022, 1:00pm EST
- Announcers: CBS – Kevin Harlan, Trent Green, Melanie Collins
- Location/Weather: MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ (61℉/10-15mph wind/2% chance of rain)
- Referee: Clay Martin
2022 Season Stat Leaders
Passing: Tua Tagovailoa (80/115, 1,036 yards, 8 TDs, 3 INTs, 104.1 Rating)
Rushing: Raheem Mostert (39 att, 147 yards, 0 TD)
Receiving: Tyreek Hill (31 rec, 477 yards, 2 TDs)
Tackles: Jerome Baker, Brandon Jones (27)
Sacks: Melvin Ingram (2)
Interceptions: Jevon Holland (1)
- MIA leads all-time series 57-55-1
- Last Matchup: 2021 Wk 15, MIA win 31-24
- NYJ has lost 8 of the last 9 meetings
Matchups to Watch
Jets DL vs Dolphins OL
It may sound cliché, and possibly redundant, but this game needs to be dictated up front by the Jets, specifically on defense. Miami has the 10th best Offensive Grade by PFF at 71.4 and the 6th-highest Pass Grade at 74.6. For comparison, the Jets are dead last in Offense (60.1) and 29th in Pass Grade. New York’s front four needs to come out firing against a middle of the pack Miami offensive line. Get to Bridgewater early and make him uncomfortable in the pocket to neutralize the deep threat ability. Conversely, the Dolphins’ defensive line is only averaging 1.75 sacks/game, so the patchwork offensive line for the Jets should be able to hold their own. Miami is a blitz-heavy defense (33.3% blitz rate in Week 4 vs Bengals), so it will be another game of chip blocks from running backs and tight ends.
CBs Sauce Gardner/D.J. Reed vs WRs Tyreek Hill/Jaylen Waddle
I have probably highlighted this group in every preview so far, and justifiably so. This will be the hardest test for the cornerback duo so far, due to Hill and Waddle’s unique skill set. Limit the explosive opportunities for the Dolphins’ track stars at wide receiver. Using Sauce to shadow Hill or Waddle, as we have seen him do with other receivers (Andrews, Chase) this season, could be a viable option this week.
Keys to Victory
- Protect the middle of the field. This season, Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle combined for 282 yards and 2 TDs this season when targeted in the Intermediate Center (between 10-19 yards past LOS), via PFF. Funnel plays to the perimeter of the field where you have more speed to keep up.
- Activate Elijah Moore, arguably your most explosive receiver. Last week, with Zach Wilson’s return to the lineup, we saw a glimpse of what Moore is able to do. The connection was good 53 yards on 3 catches (4 targets), including a beautiful comeback pass down the right sideline for 19 yards on a crucial 3rd & 6, on a drive that later ended in a touchdown. He’s overdue to find the endzone, and this week, given the Dolphins injuries problems at cornerback, could be his week.
- Zach Wilson had 2 TD passes
- The Jets win the turnover battle
- Quinnen Williams will have 2 sacks
The Jets enter their first divisional game of the season in good shape, finishing 2-2 against the AFC North to open the season. Miami has been on the winning side of a few comebacks already this season, which include erasing a 21-point deficit to the Baltimore Ravens. Despite the Dolphins having to lean on their backup quarterback, this team is still capable of making big plays on both sides of the ball. New York will have to play their best game to date in order to pick up the team’s first divisional win under GM Joe Douglas. Even though the Jets are home, and are the healthier team, I believe the Dolphins get the victory this week.
Score: L, 23-21